Paper prepared for the Global Dialogue, January 2004
By Dr. George Vassiliou
The Cyprus problem is in danger of becoming the longest
outstanding unresolved problem of the world. Germany has
been reunited, the problem of North Ireland has been
nearly solved, we have just received the good news from
Indian and Pakistan concerning Kashmir but the Cyprus
problem is still there. 1The United Nations and the World
Community has for decades now tried hard to solve the
Cyprus problem but unfortunately without success. The
reason was quite simple. After the Greek junta's coup
d'etat and the Turkish invasion and occupation of nearly
40% of the Cyprus Republic's territory, Turkey and Mr.
Denktash felt that they had the upper hand and they were
simply not interested in a solution.
The lack of balance of power between Greece and Turkey and
the perceived value that mainly the U.S. placed on
Turkey's strategic significance in the region made it
obvious that the only hope for a solution of the Cyprus
problem was a change of the equation: the addition of a
new player. This new player was the European Union. (We
use the term E.U. all through the article although it is
well known that the name changed twice over the period).
Undoubtedly the biggest achievement of the European Union
was that the continent of Europe, which was the world's
major battle field for the last centuries, has at last
found peace, stability and the resulting prosperity.
Within the Union the idea of a war between any of its
member states is impossible to even consider. Human rights
for all citizens of the Union are fully guaranteed and
respected, the various nationalities small or large live
in peace and cooperate actively for the common benefit.
The rich nations help the poor to become also rich.
Equality of races and sexes has become a reality and a way
of life.
If Cyprus had become member of the Union there would have
been no strife between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots. The
sufferings and death of so many innocent people would have
been avoided. Neither union with Greece nor taksim would
have been a realistic slogan. The rights of the Turkish
Cypriots' community would have been protected from the
very beginning. But we all know very well this was not the
case. Unfortunately shortly after independence the
intercommunal strife started and the Turkish Cypriots
withdrew from the government into their enclaves.
Official relations with the European Community were
established in 1972 when the Economic Cooperation
Agreement with the Republic of Cyprus was signed. The
Turkish Cypriots at that time although not participating
in the government expressed their agreement because they
realized that the prospect of closer relations with the
E.U. would have been to their benefit as well.
The second phase of the agreement which implied the
creation of a Customs Union should have started in 1978.
After the invasion in 1974, however, the E.U. initially
was reluctant to proceed with the second stage of the
agreement. They waited for several years and the customs
union started only 10 years later as from the 1st January
1988. In the meantime they had established that the lack
of progress towards a solution was due to the Turkish
intransigence.
Similarly the application of Cyprus to join the European
Union was made subsequently to the failure of the nearly
two years' efforts by the United Nations and the formal
breakdown of the talks as a result of Mr Denktash's
behavior in February 1990 in New York. The Cyprus
government, when making the application in July 1990,
pointed out its ardent desire to achieve a solution and
the reunification of the island by the time of accession.
Clearly if the Turkish side wanted a solution there was
plenty of time to find one from the day of the application
until the beginning of the accession talks. The European
Union, when accepting Cyprus's application in 1993,
pointed out its support for the U.N's efforts and
expressed the hope that the prospect of joining the Union
would contribute towards finding a solution.
As we have pointed out, however, Mr. Denktash and the
so-called Turkish 'Deep State' was not interested and were
hoping that they could prolong the status quo at
infinitum. Thus all efforts to find a solution prior to
1998, when the accession talks started, failed. Efforts
continued after March 1998 although without success.
During this whole period it was quite obvious that the
accession to the European Union and the solution of the
Cyprus problem were two parallel procedures which,
however, were highly inter-related between them. The
Helsinki Summit's Resolution in December 1999 stated: "a.
The European Council welcomes the launch of the talks
aiming at a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem
on 3 December in New York and expresses its strong support
for the UN Secretary-General's efforts to bring the
process to a successful conclusion.
b. The European Council underlines that a political
settlement will facilitate the accession of Cyprus to the
European Union. If no settlement has been reached by the
completion of accession negotiations, the Council's
decision on accession will be made without the above being
a precondition. In this the Council will take account of
all relevant factors."
Obviously the E.U. was not prepared under any
circumstances to accept that the lack of a solution due to
Turkish intransigence would be a reason for keeping Cyprus
out of the Union. On the contrary they were sincerely
hoping that the accession of Cyprus would contribute
greatly towards reuniting the island. This is why the U.N.
efforts were intensified leading to the submission of the
Annan Plan in the autumn of 2002. Efforts to achieve an
agreement on the basis of the Plan continued until the
last moment in Copenhagen. It was, indicative of both the
U.N. and the E.U desire to promote the reunification of
the island that during the last days before the
finalization of the negotiations another major effort was
made. Unfortunately again they could not succeed because
of Turkey's and Mr. Denktash's attitude. After the failure
of the talks, the E.U. had no choice but to accept as
member the Republic of Cyprus as a whole specifying that
"as long as there is no solution the application of the
acquis in the occupied areas is suspended. Once the island
will be reunited automatically the T/C federated state
will be part of the E.U. and all Turkish Cypriots, in the
same way as all East Germans, will be citizens of the
Union".
The accession of Cyprus to the European Union has
completely changed the equation. Even at the last moment
Mr. Denktash and the Turkish establishment tried to
influence the decision of the European Union. They issued
several threatening statements and insisted that Cyprus
should not be accepted to the Union. The Union and the
government of the Republic faced all these threats with
patience and self-constraint, knowing quite well that
Turkey was not able to implement any of them. This policy
has been fully vindicated, since shortly after accession
all threats will have been forgotten.
The reaction in the occupied areas after Cyprus's
accession was dramatic. We witnessed the two huge
spontaneous demonstrations which conveyed clearly and
loudly the message: "enough is enough we want a solution
now". We are therefore facing a completely new situation
now which is changing the equation and it is hoped that
earlier or later will lead to the reunification of the
island. Let us therefore examine in somewhat greater
detail why the accession of Cyprus to the Union should at
last lead to the solution.
We start with Turkey. Turkey has for some time now
realized that through accession to the E.U. they can
address effectively the many problems the country is
facing. For a long time a significant part of the Turkish
establishment was under the illusion that Turkey could
succeed in joining the Union without radically changing
the basic characteristics of the country's political
system i.e. the army could continue playing the leading
and decisive role in all the institutions of the Republic.
Furthermore, they hoped they could at infinitum deny the
recognition of the separate identity of the Kurdish
people, the respect of human rights and continue with the
illegal occupation of North Cyprus. The political system
in all E.U. countries is radically different from the
above. In the E.U. and all other democracies around the
world the army is in the barracks and loyal to the
political leadership of each country. Human rights are
fully respected, equality of nations and communities is a
reality and of course the use of force to occupy another
country is unimaginable.
Turkey's leadership thought that they could get away by
underlining the special character of Turkey as the spear
of NATO in the region. The dissolution of the Soviet Union
and recently the events in Iraq proved that there is no
such a role anymore. If Turkey wants to join the Union it
cannot be treated differently, it has to become a
democratic nation respecting all the basic principles of
the Union like all other countries.
On the Cyprus issue Turkey for a long time was trying to
make capital of the fact that the solution of the Cyprus
problem was not one of the Copenhagen criteria. This is
absolutely true. However, the Union has sent a very clear
message to Turkey: although the Cyprus problem is not one
of the Copenhagen criteria the solution of the Cyprus
problem is the best proof Turkey can give to the E.U. that
it has changed its behavior and respects the human rights,
integrity and sovereignty of all other nations.
It was the realization of this simple truth subsequent to
Cyprus's accession that has made the government of Mr.
Erdogan to change its attitude towards the solution of the
Cyprus problem. They are preparing the ground towards
accepting the Annan Plan as a basis for negotiations
leading to a solution. Until recently, however, Mr
Denktash and Turkey were claiming that the Annan Plan was
dead and insisted on the recognition of the so-called
realities i.e. the existence of two independent states in
Cyprus.
This propaganda became meaningless after the European
Union accepted Cyprus as a whole into the Union. Assuming
Turkey was to continue the occupation of Cyprus and
non-recognition of the Republic it would find itself in a
very difficult and rather ridiculous situation. Turkey is
applying to join the Union of 25 members, but at the same
time refuses to recognize one of the 25 countries. This
fact alone would be sufficient to kill Turkey's
application to join the Union. Therefore Turkey after May
2004 will have to recognize the Republic, re-open its
Embassy and downgrade its representation in the so-called
'Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus'. Furthermore, they
realize that it is not possible to persist with their
application while occupying by force North Cyprus i.e.
part of the territory of the Union.
It became thus obvious to most in Turkey that to get a
date for the start of accession negotiations by the end of
2004, they have to solve the Cyprus problem. They have to
accept the Annan Plan as a basis for negotiation and
convince both the European Union and the international
community that they are serious in their desire to reach a
solution. The meeting in Ankara with the T/C leaders at
the beginning of January and the relevant statements by
Prime Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Gul are a
first step in this direction. We must not forget however
that we are still not there. Many in the establishment try
desperately to maintain the status-quo and secure a date
for accession negotiations without its prior solution. The
need therefore exists but there may well be delays.
Coming now to the Turkish Cypriots: We know that many
believed Mr Denktash's well-known arguments against
accession. In a speech I made back in 1995 to T/C in North
Nicosia (the first ever by a Greek Cypriot) I answered all
these arguments and as these are all valid today as well,
I quote some relevant parts.
«What about the Turkish Cypriots? What options do they
have?
One option is to remain as they are today: isolated,
without international recognition, unable to adopt an
independent economic policy since the economy is virtually
fully integrated with that of Turkey, suffering from
inflation, lack of foreign investment, lack of a clear-cut
and internationally recognised legal structure, the
inability to legally export products, etc. The status quo,
I hope we can agree, is not an option and this is also the
position taken by the international community.
So what are the remaining options? I hope we can all agree
that the prospect of gaining legitimacy through
international recognition does not arise. Not so much
because of the role that Greek Cypriots or Greece can
play, but mainly because it is impossible for the
international community to agree to legalise the division
of a sovereign state, a member of the United Nations, by
force. It would create a very painful precedent, for which
a very high price would be paid on an international
scale.
If this second option is also not a real option, what is
left? The prospect of full integration into Turkey's
economy. But in practical terms, this is what is already
happening today. There is a free exchange of goods between
the north of Cyprus and Turkey, free movement of people
and capital, a common currency, a common
telecommunications network. It is therefore, not really a
very different option from the continuation of the status
quo. In any event, as the Turkish Foreign Minister Mr.
Inonou stated in Athens a few weeks ago, such a
perspective does not arise. Turkey does not want or intend
to annex North Cyprus and therefore only one real option
remains: that of solving the Cyprus problem and of the
reunited federal Cyprus becoming a full member of the
European Union."
Many T/C were probably under the impression that Turkey's
importance was such that Cyprus could never be accepted to
the Union without its agreement. After December 14th,
however, they came to see the truth and they knew pretty
well that without a solution they will find themselves in
an extremely difficult situation. Living isolated in a
non-recognized entity, part of an island illegally
occupied by Turkey and without being able to take any
advantage of Cyprus's membership in the Union unless they
themselves also recognize the Republic and accept to
become citizens of the Republic. This is why after
Copenhagen we witnessed those grandiose demonstrations in
support of the Annan Plan. After that nothing was the same
any more. The 'Green Line' was partly opened, T/C were
permitted to come and work in the Republic and finally the
T/C in the recent elections voted in their overwhelming
majority in favour of the opposition parties wanting a
solution.
The T/C citizens obviously want to forget the past
conflicts and see their island reunited within the frame
of a bicommunal, bizonal federation. For them the choice
was easy because with a solution they have everything to
gain, without a solution they have everything to lose.
They today realize that the idea that the Turkish Cypriots
will lose their identity within a federal Cyprus that is
part of Europe is wholly unattainable. On the contrary,
this identity would be safeguarded because that is the
practice and established policy of the European Union. The
European Union is a diverse, multilateral, multi-ethnic,
multi religious entity. The Maastricht Treaty provides the
most effective guarantees for all nationalities and ethnic
communities living within the European Union. Furthermore,
by enshrining the principle of subsidiarity, the European
Union ascertains that decisions are taken by the citizens
themselves. In practice, this means that most decisions
affecting the Turkish Cypriot community would be taken by
elected Turkish Cypriot representatives.
Moreover, in addition to prohibiting any discrimination,
the Maastricht Treaty gives the various regions comprising
the community, the opportunity to participate in the
formulation of all relevant policies through the so-called
Committee of the Regions. Already 50 of Europe's regions
have established permanent offices in Brussels to
represent their interests. Therefore, within the frame of
Cyprus's membership to the European Union, the Turkish
Cypriot community will not only feel safe and secure
because of the protection that Europe provides, but
furthermore will have the opportunity to contribute to the
formulation of European policies through participation in
the Committee of the Regions.
I would also like to point out that the Community provides
substantial funding for the preservation and strengthening
of local institutions for the study of the traditions and
history of each region and nationality or ethnic group for
the preservation and development of the culture, art and
folklore of all such ethnic groups.
In the same speech I also answered various other negative
arguments "If Cyprus joins the European Union many claim,
the Turkish guarantees will not be valid and for us the
guarantee of Turkey is a sina qua non." This is a well
known argument, but we should never forget that the safest
form of security is multilateral and not bilateral. No
nation, however large or powerful, can alone provide
enough security to protect its own interests. It is no
coincidence that for so many years Turkey has been a
member of the NATO alliance. Membership of the European
Union automatically leads to membership of the Western
European Union, of which Turkey is also an associate
member. I cannot imagine that the Basques, the Flemish,
the Walloons, the Tyroleans, feel their security is in
danger now that the nation-states of which they are part
are members of the European Union. It is no exaggeration
to state that only within the frame of the European Union,
will all Cypriots, Greek and Turkish Cypriots alike,
really feel secure.
What about the other argument? That Cyprus joining the
European Union without Turkey is equal to enosis of Cyprus
with Greece? This is really a naive argument, and I do not
think even those people who use it believe in it. Because
the rules and regulations of the European Union are known
as very strict and no nation can take advantage or prevail
on any other member state or part of a member state,
however powerful that nation may be. And clearly Greece is
anything but the most powerful nation of the European
Union, with at present only 5 out of 87 votes.
The next series of arguments relate to the danger of
Turkish Cypriots being dominated economically by the Greek
Cypriots. This is again false because within the European
Union no nation has been able to dominate any other
nation, nor has any group of people been able to dominate
any other group of people, however strong or powerful. On
the contrary, the whole philosophy and one of the founding
principles of the European Union is to support the weak,
to strengthen them and enable them to match the
competition from those that are stronger.
Another variant of this argument is that "we will not be
able to compete with the Greeks because they are more
powerful economically". The gap between the Greek Cypriots
and the Turkish Cypriots in the last twenty years since
they have lived separately has increased rather than
decreased. If the status quo continues, there is no reason
to suppose that this will change. On the contrary, the
indications are that the gap will become even wider. In
contrast, within the frame of a solution, huge sums of
money through aid, various funds and investments will pour
into the Turkish Cypriot area, while free trade and free
movement of labour and capital will very quickly lead to
the equalisation of earnings and living standards of the
two communities through the very rapid rise in the
standard of living and earnings of the Turkish Cypriots.
So it is by remaining separate that you will ensure that
you are never able to compete effectively with the Greek
Cypriots, whilst by solving the Cyprus problem and joining
a reunited federal Cyprus, a member of the European Union,
you can be certain that the Turkish Cypriots will be able
to develop their entrepreneurial and productive abilities
to the full, for their own benefit and for the benefit of
Cyprus as a whole.
Membership of the European Union will bring:
- a stable currency linked to the ECU,
- a safe economy which will attract huge sums in foreign
investment,
- a large inflow of tourists and tourist-related
investment
- the ability of Cyprus to exploit its full potential as a
centre for services for the whole of the Eastern
Mediterranean
It will give Turkish Cypriots the opportunity to take
advantage of their special relationship with businessmen
in Turkey and the Arab world and become leading players in
the very beneficial and profitable game of services.
It will provide free education in the world's best
universities for the youth of Cyprus, whether Greek or
Turk, and the ability to use their skills properly by
participating and working in various research institutions
all over Europe.
It will provide a feeling of security for all Greeks and
Turks, make them self-confident and therefore more willing
to cooperate with each other.
All the above arguments are today fully accepted by the
overwhelming majority of the T/C who are accordingly
anxious to promote a solution.
For the Greek Cypriots the accession was undoubtedly the
most important event since the establishment of the
Republic. For the reasons explained, for the first time
since the invasion, the prospect of a solution is a
realistic option. Furthermore, until the solution and the
reunification of the island could become a reality, their
feeling of safety and security would be dramatically
improved. At long last Greek-Cypriots could sleep, knowing
that the danger of a second invasion by Turkey is simply
non existent. No Turkish General could even dream of
occupying further parts of a territory that is an integral
part of the European Union. Greek Cypriots having at last
achieved security they could now plan and build their
future knowing they are safe. Because of this fact some
have argued that G/C would not be interested in a solution
any more. Such an argument is preposterous because
whatever our achievements after 1974 the fact remains that
nearly 40% of the island, which at that time accounted for
more than 60% of GDP, is occupied by Turkey. By now
practically in every family because of intermarriages
there are refugees, and the desire to have access to your
parental home or property never dies. What is more
important, however, is the knowledge that the passage of
time makes a solution more difficult, particularly in
relation with the settlers' problem. Since we are all
fully aware that neither the E.U. nor any other country
will go to war over Cyprus. We understand that only
through an agreement based on the United Nations proposals
we can achieve reunification.
The European Union is very much interested in seeing
Cyprus reunited, but the initiative for solving of the
problem was left with the United Nations. The European
Union limited its role to following closely the
negotiations and advising the U.N. on various aspects of
the solution. They fully support the basic principles and
philosophy of the Annan plan and have made this abundantly
clear. Greek Cypriots therefore know very well that if
they want to see their island reunited and take advantage
of the E.U. membership they have to continue working for a
solution based on the U.N. proposals.
Finally, we should not underestimate the continuous and
strong interest of the United States. The recent letters
by President Bush convey this message clearly and loudly.
Therefore, the accession of Cyprus to the Union has
created a new momentum which, hopefully, should lead to
the solution and reunification of the island this year.
Before concluding this article, however, we need to point
out that accession to the Union is also extremely
important for ensuring that the Annan plan would be
implemented effectively. The reason is simple. The E.U.
and its institutions are the best guarantee that all
Cypriots, whether G/C or T/C, will be able to live in
peace together, create and take advantage of all the
opportunities the E.U. offers to its citizens.
The functioning of the single market, the free movement of
capital and services would ensure the economic development
of the future federate T/C state. The foreign policy of
Cyprus would never be a matter of friction between Greek
Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots since major decisions will
be taken in Brussels and not in Cyprus. The same goes for
all major economic problems and for the stability of the
currency since Cyprus will shortly join the E.M.U. and
adopt the Euro.
Finally, it should be pointed out that the famous
stumbling block of whether the new Federal Republic is
created as a result of the unification of two independent
states or of the free choice of its citizens lost its
significance since the Republic of Cyprus has already been
accepted in the E.U. One Cyprus is now member and its
development into a Federal Republic, like in the case of
Belgium, is an option on the Cypriots to decide upon.
1 We are not dealing in this article with the other major
problem of the world: the Israel-Palestinian conflict and
all its very important ramifications.